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Main Discussion

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124 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 April 2017 09:50
Pile in!
3-ducks
Posted - 20 April 2017 09:51
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HEH!
Sergio Bogface
Posted - 20 April 2017 09:52
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And the odds of a Tory majority? (just for comparison)
Simply Sausage
Posted - 20 April 2017 09:53
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What a glorious day if it transpires May has made a miscalculation as big as Cameron's - I don't think she has sadly.
Saillaw
Posted - 20 April 2017 09:53
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Does that assume that Jezza is dethroned before the election as he's said he won't do it?
I am Cyprian
Posted - 20 April 2017 09:54
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I think Jezza will fall away as a term of a Labour-led coalition.
Obadiah Hakeswill
Posted - 20 April 2017 09:55
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The prospect of a Lib/Lab/SNP coalition is enough to make me change my mind and vote Tory.
Simply Sausage
Posted - 20 April 2017 09:55
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How about Jimmy Crankie for PM?
Simply Sausage
Posted - 20 April 2017 09:56
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Obadiah this is not about the Tories not forming the next government it is about not giving them a free run at a hard brexit that will fvck us all for generations to come.
minkie
Posted - 20 April 2017 09:59
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Greens have got the ball rolling, they have written to Lab office and have started unofficial deals with Lib Dem in South West
Simply Sausage
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:05
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Lib Dems have a problem in the SW as it mostly (a couple of affluent towns and cities aside) voted strongly to Brexit. London and the SE is their best bet.
old git roundabout
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:07
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What is Farron's majority? Next door to Copeland isn't he?
124 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:13
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Hank is voting LibDem - I think LibDems can retake Bath in South West, but the anti-Brexit message that may resonate in that constituency will damage them in others nearby, like Wells.

Maybe it will be a return to the Pantsdown era when neighbouring LibDem MPs held and campaigned on diametrically opposed policies.
Simply Sausage
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:16
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I don't think any Lib Dem could credibly claim to be pro-Brexit 249. Lib Dems are drawn from quite a wide spectrum from left to right that they can emphasise differently in different constituencies but being pro EU (along with electoral reform) is one of their uniting features - lets face it if you were not pro EU you would not be in the party. Therein lies their difficulty in many parts of the country.
YossarianFriday
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:18
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The Wells constituency potentially could go LibDem.

Tessa Munt the LibDem candidate was the MP and is relatively popular, also it was actually more remain than most of the South West. Further for a South West rural constituency he always had a relatively large Labour (albeit in third place) vote which will be destroyed. Takes in areas like hippy Glastonbury as well.

Sleeps I take your point, but Wells is not going to be particularly turned off by a Remain campaign.
Simply Sausage
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:18
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In contrast Labour (and to a lesser extent the Tories) have some leeway in how they play the European issue from constituency to constituency.
I am Cyprian
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:43
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[BREXIT!!]

FRENCH!!! NOW SEE HERE, I'M NOT SURE WHAT YOUR REGIMENT WAS, BUT I DARE-SAY IT WASN'T AN ENGLISH ONE. PARLIAMENT MEANS PARLIAMENT! OUR BRAVE BOYS FOUGHT AND DIED FOR A BRITISH PARLIAMENT AGAINST THE FOREIGN PEOPLE. A RED, WHITE AND BLUE PARLIA.... WAIT, ISN'T THAT THE FRENCH FLAG TOO? NO, PARLIAMENT NEEDS A STRONG LEADER, SOMEONE WHO CAN GUIDE US THROUGH THE AGES. WE KNOW THE FIXED TERM PARLIAMENT ACT IS OUTDATED, SO WHAT WE NEED IS A NEW SYSTEM, WHERE OUR DEAR LEADER DECIDES WHEN SHE WANTS AN ELECTION. AND WHEN SHE DOES, WE WILL GIVE HER A MAJORITY TO DO AS SHE THINKS BEST. THAT'S WHAT THE BRITISH WORD "PARLIAMENT" MEANS!!!

[/BREXIT!!]
strutter
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:44
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Of course wee jimmy crankie could never be pm because she is not an MP (although to be fair most people believe that she is)
Simply Sausage
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:46
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Of course wee jimmy crankie could never be pm because she is not an MP (although to be fair most people believe that she is)

That was tongue in cheek but technically she could by being made a peer
Sigh of the Oppressed
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:47
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What could Labour offer the SNP short of another referendum?

It's not much in the SNP's interests to be seen as part of the Westminster govt, since it would take away their "Oh, Scotland is being run by Westminster" bleat".
Sergio Bogface
Posted - 20 April 2017 14:13
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Corbyn has ruled out a coalition with the SNP, and Sturgeon has said that Corbyn's Labour are unelectable.

Of course they may kiss and make up, but I'm not sure we should dwell on that mental image....
124 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 21 April 2017 10:48
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Odds are moving you say? Still?

I wonder if this has anything to do with it:

Signs of an advanced strategy in play on campaign day three from Corbynistas at Momentum:

“The odds are against Labour, but if enough of us bet a tenner on Labour to get the most seats or Corbyn to be the next PM, the odds will shorten and the narrative will begin to change.”

The remarkable plan was formulated by a clueless London Momentum group. More money in the market to lay against…


https://order-order.com/2017/04/20/momentum-put-tenner-corbyn-shorten-odds/

Pr oof, if ever it were needed, that the Corbynistas have more money than sense.
Barnsbury
Posted - 21 April 2017 11:08
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LibDems have always done well in the south west. They did vote Leave down there, but as soon as the outcome of the referendum was announced and realisation sank in, the entire region pretty much shat its collective pants. It took one local authority in Cornwall all of about ten minutes (having just voted leave) to demand an explanation for who was going to make up all the lovely EU subsidies that they rely on so much down there. Pretty of Bregretters in the south west.
Budgie Quay
Posted - 21 April 2017 11:24
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I think people might be overestimating the impact of Brexit on voting patterns. I suspect that actually the Lib Dems will benefit more from the following:

- the poisonous effects of being a junior member of govt will no longer hang over them
- bounce back effect. Lots of people who boted for them before 2015 will retain sympathies and will be turned off by the increasing polarisation of both Labour and Tories
- a reverse of the process whereby the Tories won seats off them at the last election due to SNP/Labour fears. That will be hard for Tories to repeat given that they are obviously going to win and Labour is dead. Plus will be hard to combine that broadly social and economic argument with running on a Brexit agenda
- simply greater airtime (admittedly due to Brexit)
- they lost seats to snp too which might come back

With Brexit driving them too they could well climb back towards where they were before. Their real goal however is to create a base for 2022. If Brexit goes badly, which it could well do and Labour continue to remain hard Left they could have a chance to become the main opposition in 2022. They really need to find a way to appeal to the young though. Theyll never get into government whilst the Boomers are alive but as they and their influence dies offby the late 2020s they may have better prospects. But they should be fighting for the future and this really means they should be targetting younger voters: rent contols, property taxes, lower income taxes, better education policies.
Mitrovic
Posted - 21 April 2017 12:18
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I don't think the impact of Brexit is being overstated. For Remainers this is a straight re-run of the referendum and most Remainers have become single-issue voters.

The Tories will lose hundreds of thousands of educated middle class Remainer votes. I am not sure this will be enough to turf them or of power, however, especially if the 'kippers return to the fold. But I expect them to lose suburban London seats hand over fist. Justine Greening for instance is electoral roadkill, just like Zac.

A Lab-Lib-SNP government would be excellent for the country, a proper coalition of the progressive. It would happen whether or not Corbyn would be willing because the rank and file PLP would promise it voting allegiance over Corbyn's head, and on that basis Farron and Sturgeon would be able to demonstrate they could govern. As I say however, all in all I think the Tories will end with a similar or marginally increased majority over what they have now. It's not going to be a bonanza - in 3215 they more or less maxed out their vote share, and remember their vote is old so a lot of Tories have died since 2015.
Mitrovic
Posted - 21 April 2017 12:20
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Labour will retake Copeland
pancake humper
Posted - 21 April 2017 12:27
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In the two days since announcing the election, Theresa May has basically vanished and her head of comms and press secretary have both quit.

Not that Labour have any hope, but it's a weird start to an election campaign.
Brad's big radioactive donger
Posted - 21 April 2017 12:29
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lol
Sigh of the Oppressed
Posted - 21 April 2017 12:41
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Bert Weedon
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:05
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it won't happen until lab have ditched the loonies

You are forgetting something. The loonies ARE the Labour Party. That is why Jezza got elected twice with such handsome majority. That electorate, including our very own Hank, are the totality of the Labour Party..
Mitrovic
Posted - 21 April 2017 13:00
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I would really, really love to see a LibLabNat coalition

It would properly fvck off so many people I hate
Simply Sausage
Posted - 21 April 2017 13:09
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I have left the Labour Party Soto and will not be voting for them
Mitrovic
Posted - 21 April 2017 13:29
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Truth never really bothers SotO, Hank
Sergio Bogface
Posted - 21 April 2017 13:31
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There will be quite a few moderate left votes out there, looking for a home to go to. Lib Dem should manage to hoover up quite a few - they won't all vote Green for a change. Remains to be seen how many seats that might deliver. There might be quite a few 40-30-30 splits in which the Tories take the seat with 40% of the vote.
ReggiePerrin is voting Lib Dem
Posted - 21 April 2017 13:31
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Hal, you can't prove that the Labour Party exists, nor that Jeremy Corbyn was ever elected leader of such an entity. No causal link can be conclusively demonstrated to exist between the counting of the ballots (if there even were any ballots) and the announcement of Corbyn's victory.
Abbeywell/NSA
Posted - 21 April 2017 13:34
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Can you imagine the mess that union would become
Sigh of the Oppressed
Posted - 21 April 2017 14:34
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Hank is voting LibDem
Posted - 21 April 2017 13:09
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I have left the Labour Party Soto and will not be voting for them

I apologise. I should have realised that the fact that you defended him for months, and that you said you had voted for him because you wanted to turn British politics towards the left actually meant that you abhorred Marxist sectarianism and were really committed to a party led by an evangelical Christian.

Since you see more clearly than I about Roffers' political allegiances, how will our very own Laz, the Labour council candidate who said he would vote three times for Corbyn, then said he was considering joining UK and now proclaims he will be Lib Dem Leader be voting?