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Main Discussion

Politics in 20 years' time
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ReggiePerrin is voting Lib Dem
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:20
I honestly believe that we are in the middle of a global realignment. The old order of socialist-left versus capitalist-right seems to be breaking up, to be replaced by a new dividing line of nationalist populism versus liberal globalism.

We know about Trump in America, the rise of Le Pen in France, the near-misses of Wilders in Holland and the Freedom Party in Austria, and the victories of other kinds of anti-system populists in Italy and Greece. Our strange electoral system largely protected us from it until Mr Cameron decided that it would be a good idea to short-circuit parliamentary democracy and award referendums to Scottish nationalists and then British nationalists.

I think there is a good chance that at the 2037 general election I will be campaigning alongside the likes of Hanners for some sort of Macron-style liberal globalist and against the forces of backwards populism.
Scot Chegg
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:26
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On your last para - I've been trying to explain that to hanners and bookem and co. for months

The Ayn Randians are being (wilfully?) hoodwinked because they think populism is getting them what they want. It's not.
Bert Weedon
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:28
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or, the broad left will finally have to wake up and smell the imported coffee.....
243 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:29
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I think there is a good chance that at the 2037 general election I will be campaigning alongside the likes of Hanners for some sort of Macron-style liberal globalist and against the forces of backwards populism.

--

You mean me? If so, I don't doubt you're right.
Scot Chegg
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:31
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Seriously hanners, you've got to give it up. It's fooling nobody. I'm sorry.
Wellington
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:33
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Politics aren't going to matter in the smoking ruins of Europe after Trumps WW3 vs Russia and North Korea
Sigh of the Oppressed
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:33
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Sleeps: I think Reg means that the C19th abortion of Socialism and collectivism has run its course (courtesy of c100m murders by the state of its own citizens). It's just that Reg can't bear to say that, even though he could probably get a slot as a TV historian if he did. Go on Reg, you know you want to.
pancake humper
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:41
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I agree that is the realignment going on right now, but it will have been supplanted by something much worse by 2037.

The world is sleepwalking into an environmental and resource crisis on a scale that few have really acknowledged.
minkie
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:44
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In 20 years time Anna and her generation will be perplexed to find that her ideologies do not match those of her children and grandchildren's generation. So in that respect plus ca change
ReggiePerrin is voting Lib Dem
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:44
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On the contrary, Hal, it's mainstream social democracy that is in crisis. Radical socialism is in surprisingly good shape in many countries. President Melenchon, anyone?
Lib-Dem-Cyp-ree-en
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:48
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a tug-o-war between (i) people who want to make the world better for all; versus (ii) people who want to make it like they mis-remember it.


Brad's big donger
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:55
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Parliament debated and approved by primary legislation both referenda.

Apart from that you still have the worst political insight on rof reggie.
ReggiePerrin is voting Lib Dem
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:57
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NO, I WON'T HAVE THAT!!!!

There's a place in Eastbourne.
🐤🐤🐤 is voting Conservative
Posted - 20 April 2017 12:20
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Classic Major
Weally Been
Posted - 20 April 2017 12:27
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Yeah that analysis is plain wrong

Socialism v capitalism isn't going anywhere as a driving force of difference for my money

Pity the fools who don't give wholehearted support to capitalism as they will always ultimately just be a protest
Sigh of the Oppressed
Posted - 20 April 2017 12:27
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Reg: you DO mean what I said you mean. It's just your false consciousness that's stopping you from realising it.

Yes, less toast the power of "Radical Socilaism" which has stormed to resurgent power in, umm, well, there's Venezuela (a fair time ago) and, umm, well Zimbabwe (so they say) (even longer ago) and N Korea (sort of 60 odd years ago) and umm, err, there's that other place, probably. Oh yes, like you say, it's that "not actually in power Melenchon" chappie isn't it?

BTW, there's this little invertebrate of doubt wiggling away in mind. This "Hal" stuff. Are you too arrogant to admit you've made a mistake, or too dumb to do so? I'm asking for a friend, you understand.
ReggiePerrin is voting Lib Dem
Posted - 20 April 2017 12:41
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Definitely arrogant rather than dumb.

The claim isn't that radical socialist parties are in power (although you missed out Greece and Cyprus), it's that they are on the rise. Melenchon is only one example. You could also look at Podemos, which has broken onto the national stage from nothing, or Sinn Fein, which has been doing well in both parts of Ireland, or Bernie Sanders in America, or indeed Jeremy Corbyn's election and re-election as Labour leader. I understand that your friends Die Linke are doing relatively well in the polls too. Join the dots, my man.

Obviously, these people and parties are the polar opposite of the bigoted racist right, but they have one major common factor: they are a response to the same kind of anti-system, anti-establishment feeling that seems to be on the rise worldwide.
ReggiePerrin is voting Lib Dem
Posted - 20 April 2017 12:48
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Btw don't bother telling me that I can't prove any of the implicit and explicit causal claims in that last post. Bovvered.
Sigh of the Oppressed
Posted - 20 April 2017 14:05
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ReggiePerrin
Posted - 20 April 2017 12:41
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Definitely arrogant rather than dumb.

That made me chuckle, though I'm not sure if it was meant to.

Calling Sinn Fein the "opposite" of bigoted made me positively laugh, and I am sure it wasn't meant to.

Calling any sectoral class based ideology not bigoted made me hoot, and I am absolutely certain it wasn't meant to. Do you want to re-visit your dumb v arrogant analysis?

But you are right, Cyprus and Greece are the envy of the world. No wonder there is such an overwhelming clamour for socialism.
Sergio Bogface
Posted - 20 April 2017 14:09
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I agree with the OP - up to a point. I think that there is a global 1789 moment coming and I think it will be with us before 2037.

In the UK, a lot of people have been economically fucked over during the past 10-20 years by the 'ruling elite' and they have had enough. You can try telling them that globalisation and immigration are really good for them, but all they are hearing is, "qu'ils mangent de la brioche."

There has been a steady breakdown of trust, not just in politicians of all flavours, variously caught with their pants down, their hands in the till, or publishing dodgy dossiers, but just about every other institution or figure of authority and respect as well; greedy bankers who fucked the economy, conniving journalists who lied about phone hacking, police who lied and covered up what really happened at Hillsborough, a number of priests, teachers and celebrities who turned out to be kiddie fiddlers - the list goes on.

Regional variations of this theme of discontent are what is driving Brexit, Trump, Le Pen et al. They are sick of the 'ruling elite' (liberal or otherwise) and want change so badly that they will even vote for a circus clown, if that is the only way to change the system. The electorate is having a tantrum - et pour cause....
cardinalwhorly
Posted - 20 April 2017 14:23
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Good. I hope there is a global realignment. The biggest con job in recent decades has been to convince people that there's nothing that government can do, there are forces beyond our control, etc. There aren't. There's just been a decision to allow globalist economic imperatives to continue uninterrupted irrespective of whether there's any popular support for their outcomes. It increasingly appears to be the case that there isn't.
ReggiePerrin is voting Lib Dem
Posted - 20 April 2017 14:26
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Do you want to re-visit your dumb v arrogant analysis?

No I'm ok, thx.
Sergio Bogface
Posted - 20 April 2017 14:34
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What the Cardinal said.
243 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 April 2017 14:37
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You should all read "Rebel: How to Overthrow the Emerging Oligarchy" by Douglas Carswell:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Rebel-How-Overthrow-Emerging-Oligarchy/dp/1786691558/ref= sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1492695388&sr=1-1

Politics has never been more unpredictable. Radical populists and insurgents have turned politics-as-usual on its head. Rebel explores how we got here, where we are heading and what we can do about it.

Douglas Carswell argues that these insurgencies are a reaction against the emergence of a political and economic oligarchy that has subverted our democracy and stifled our market system. 'Politics,' he writes, 'is a cartel. Like the economy, it is rigged in the interests of a few.' This leaves our liberal, democratic order – the mechanism that has allowed a historically unprecedented proportion of humanity to flourish – facing a twin assault: oligarchs on the one hand, radical populists on the other.

Reassessing history and politics, Rebel puts forward a bold new thesis: we are not the first to face such a threat. Oligarchic cartels have clogged the arteries of nations and economies throughout history, triggering radical insurgencies in protest. But all too often the radicals have strengthened the hand of the oligarchs: the Roman, Venetian and Dutch republics all succumbed to cartels. 'Anti-oligarch radicals,' the author notes, 'have often made the oligarchs seem the more attractive option.' So, too, today, he suggests.

In the face of these twin threats, Carswell mounts a robust defence of the liberal, democratic order. Drawing on his first-hand experience in taking on – and beating – the established political parties, he proposes a profound reform of politics and capitalism to free us from the cartels, listing the practical steps needed to make this revolutionary change happen.

'As a revolutionary text, Carswell's is right up there with the Communist Manifesto' Sunday Times.

'A passionately expressed set of arguments about why our current political arrangements do not work' Daily Telegraph.

'Carswell is as genuine a rebel as parliament contains' The Times.

'Unusual and fascinating' Irish Independent.

'Mr Carswell makes his case well' The Economist.

'There is remarkable breadth of history in this book, ranging from ancient Greece to the present day' Guardian.
The liB Dems
Posted - 20 April 2017 14:41
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Information age innit.
Sergio Bogface
Posted - 20 April 2017 14:47
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That's why sound bites such as "we're gonna drain the swamp!" won so many votes.

Budgie Quay
Posted - 20 April 2017 14:54
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The real battle to come will be over who will fund the growing tax base that will be required to support the population. It will have to be shifted towards those who own assets rather than those who work for a living - because there will be fewer workers and the value of their labour will continue to trend downwards. This will be painful in the West as our tax systems are designed to tax income and day-to-day consumption and our ruling elites enjoy being rentiers or living off protected wealth.

Its a shame we didn't adjust sooner as we could have salvaged more of a generally beneficial global liberal agenda. Instead our elites have allowed most of the country to decline whilst getting exorbitantly rich out of globalism.
cardinalwhorly
Posted - 20 April 2017 15:01
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Japanese robots will support the dying-off tax base. The only question is how to pay for them and how much they'll cost. Elderly care will be dealt with by androids within the next 30 years or so. We will then be able to focus on what kind of world we want to live in and whether lunatics who threaten peace and stability are not just inconvenient but now (then) completely intolerable.
Sigh of the Oppressed
Posted - 20 April 2017 15:01
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ReggiePerrin
Posted - 20 April 2017 14:26
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Do you want to re-visit your dumb v arrogant analysis?

No I'm ok, thx.

Thanks for making my point for me with such elegance and brevity. You're a real gent.
sporting_zucchini
Posted - 20 April 2017 15:52
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The political centrist status quo of liberal globalism and deregulation is the cause of the emerging oligarchy supported by a self-serving political elite, and the widening inequality between the 0.1% and the rest of the world.

The emerging movements of radical socialism and the populist right wing both represent the reaction by the dissatisfied and disenfranchised ordinary people to this emerging oligarchy.

These movements should recognise their joint interests and goals, stop fighting each other, and work together against the common enemy. If this shift cannot be accomplished by a peaceful democratic revolution the inevitable result will be violent civil disorder and economic breakdown.
ReggiePerrin is voting Lib Dem
Posted - 20 April 2017 15:58
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The political centrist status quo of liberal globalism and deregulation is the cause of the emerging oligarchy supported by a self-serving political elite, and the widening inequality between the 0.1% and the rest of the world.

There are 36 words in this sentence.
Weally Been
Posted - 20 April 2017 16:14
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I think the People's Front of Judea has the right idea and I'm sticking with them...
ReggiePerrin is voting Lib Dem
Posted - 20 April 2017 16:15
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SPLITTER!
Weally Been
Posted - 20 April 2017 16:55
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Haha
Anna is voting Lib Dem
Posted - 21 April 2017 14:44
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"minkie
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:44
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In 20 years time Anna and her generation will be perplexed to find that her ideologies do not match those of her children and grandchildren's generation. So in that respect plus ca change "


Belated HEH @ this.

Self-awareness sale that way, Minkie ------------------------------------------------------------------->
bookem
Posted - 21 April 2017 14:56
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Why can't we just have a broadly neoliberal economy with B1airite tendancies in education and foreign policy?

LIKE THE GOOD OLD DAYS!