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Main Discussion

would Scotland have to join the euro?
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saoirse99
Posted - 20 March 2017 10:54
why do you think this?

my view has just changed radically (which is annoying)
stardust
Posted - 20 March 2017 10:57
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Yes.
saoirse99
Posted - 20 March 2017 10:58
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I used to think that but, having reviewed Sweden, I have discovered that I was totally wrong

curses!
stardust
Posted - 20 March 2017 11:00
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Haven't the rules changed for newer members, though? I genuinely am not sure, but thought that all members after 2020 had to be in the Eurozone and new members wouldn't be able to opt out?
saoirse99
Posted - 20 March 2017 11:02
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it's the same criteria for membership

when Sweden satisfies the ERM II requirements, it has to join

it has decided to purposefully not satisfy those criteria, which it says is voluntary
Used Psychology
Posted - 20 March 2017 11:02
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If it wants full EU membership then yes. Not required for any lower tier association deal.
Wellington
Posted - 20 March 2017 11:02
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The scots will argue they aren't "new" members presumably.

Everyone will point and laugh at them and then make them sign up for the giant ponzi scheme that is the Euro.

The rest of the UK will also have to join the Eurozone once we come skulking back to them in circa 2025 when Brexit has fvcked our entire economy.
saoirse99
Posted - 20 March 2017 11:02
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UP - you are wrong!
Saillaw
Posted - 20 March 2017 11:04
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Given what Mr. Verhofstadt has been saying since the Brexit vote I can't see him agreeing to any new members without them adopting the Euro and agreeing to support the full federalisation project.
stardust
Posted - 20 March 2017 11:05
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Re what Saillaw said - it's that mindless YOU MUST JOIN WITH NO QUESTIONS ASKED mentality which makes me nervous. The Euro has monumentally fcked some countries over.
Used Psychology
Posted - 20 March 2017 11:06
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Where you getting that from clerks?
saoirse99
Posted - 20 March 2017 11:06
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Saillaw

all new members are required to join the euro when they meet the ERM II conditions for entry

Sweden demonstrates that it is totally possible to agree to this but to manage your economy so that those conditions are never met

effectively rendering membership voluntary
Used Psychology
Posted - 20 March 2017 11:11
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It all depends on what your accession treaty says in relation to ERM II conditions, that provision does not apply to other new joiners.
blindtom
Posted - 20 March 2017 11:12
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Clergs, the problem with the comparison is that Sweden actually controls its own currency, whereas if Scotland were to continue using the £ they would not.
saoirse99
Posted - 20 March 2017 11:15
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it's a good point, bt, but I can't imagine the UK lining up for ERMII to spite us (I think that currency union might actually preclude membership)

the ERMII provisions do still apply to new joiners
saoirse99
Posted - 20 March 2017 11:15
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because they need to be met to protect the currency

there is no "and on day 1 do this, day 2 do that"
Ukiyo-e
Posted - 20 March 2017 11:37
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Oh dear God it's 2010-2014 again. Nothing has changed. If the SNP cannot get cast iron guarantee of membership from the EU then any call for and Indyref repeat is an utterly pointless and divisive exercise in national self-harm.
SumoKing
Posted - 20 March 2017 12:17
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depends what they go for, they might stop at EFTA or EEA membership

obviously there are risks to the Euro but the scottish economy is not the greek or spanish, much closer to dutch or austrian

there is a lot of potential benefit when you're not getting bled on FX loss, especially with the new consumer and delivery that would make it easier to buy stuff and ship it across the continent

would have to consider it at the time, if the UK looks like a basket case by that time it might be the lesser of two evils
saoirse99
Posted - 20 March 2017 12:21
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it doesn't depend! even in the EU, they need not join
SumoKing
Posted - 20 March 2017 12:28
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eh?

there are 3 options

1. keep sterling (nothing treasury can do to prevent that unless they want to make it a closed currency)

2. join the euro and use the euro (might be a pre condition of membership of EU, might not. I actually think they should agree with the EU to just use it regardless. Being able to say "we'll use this and the EU agreed would severely damage the impact of this issue)

3. make a new currency that is (at least for a bit) pegged to sterling/dollar/euro

what you go for depends what your international trade policy is, if it is "get back into EU or very EU adjacent" then Euro is probably a good bet. If not then maybe new currency or sterling/sterling peg is the way to go

The most damaging thing though is a sort of fudge of saying nothing. There is a perception that the treasury can control who uses pounds so it has a stronger voice when it says "we will hoover them all up"
Judy_Carter
Posted - 20 March 2017 12:30
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what would you call your new currency Clerghers:

groat

bru

salmond

saoirse99
Posted - 20 March 2017 12:32
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We'd call it the No Captain Swings Club Pfenig
saoirse99
Posted - 20 March 2017 12:34
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You can use the Swedish example to illustrate the point

The rest is just "i don't know anything about erm ii but I'm going to sound baselessly confident because that's how we make our living on ROF"
saoirse99
Posted - 20 March 2017 12:35
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(which is to say, the test is identical, there's no way we could meet it if we didn't control our currency and if we did we could choose not to)
sporting_zucchini
Posted - 20 March 2017 12:43
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Accession states have fingers crossed behind their backs when they sign the treaties, knowing conditions they sign up to won't be enforced, or they can manipulate them ad nauseam.

The big difference for indy Scots might be that they have to stop printing Scottish Sterling banknotes. Have to invent a new currency if they want to keep printing money.
saoirse99
Posted - 20 March 2017 12:46
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scottish sterling are printed in kent
Third Half
Posted - 20 March 2017 13:16
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INdependent Scotland has three options

(1) Join (if permitted) EU but join the Euro (currently apparently not merely impossible but at reported 9 per cent deficit uninvisagible [is that a word?; I think not; but it is now one and should be applied])

(2) Keep the BoE pound as per US$ and countries like Ecuador (once, not sure about now) or Argentina in the 1990s. Has its uses to curb rampant inflation but needs backing from serious raw materials etc. I can come back to this on observation in multiple places which have used and tried.

(3) Establish a floating/fixed Scottish pound (the 'jimmy') (have to be outside EU though) but whoa betide it.

Perhaps Nicola could claim that the BoE 's gold sold by Brown was done without Scots' consent and they want a portion of it back (at independence day plus interest)