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Just how fvcked are we
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Hank
Posted - 20 March 2017 15:18
If we end up on WTO terms with Europe?

Presumably the financial services industry will be super fvcked without passporting and all foreign companies with European headquarters based in the UK will bugger off PDQ.
saoirse99
Posted - 20 March 2017 15:19
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well

do you know the other countries that have no other trade agreements?

that might offer some indication
269 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 March 2017 15:23
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Project Fear - so 2016.
BREXIT!!
Posted - 20 March 2017 15:26
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LET ME PAINT YOU A PICTURE OF HOW IT WILL BE:

THIS GREAT NATION WILL BE SITTING IN FRONT OF TWO PLATES

THE FIRST PLATE ONLY HAS SOME CAKE CRUMBS LEFT ON IT (AND POSSIBLY A SMEAR OF ICING)

THE SECOND PLATE HAS A CAKE ON IT

AND MEANWHILE THE EUROPEANS ARE ALL HAVING TO SHARE ONE (1) HUMBLE PIE!!!
SumoKing
Posted - 20 March 2017 15:27
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probably manage to limp along with a few jobs going to Ireland, depends what deals are on the cards with other countries. Worryingly we're hearing a lot off rightards back tracking on 30 years of gospel about our economy and how it will all be fine so long as we're smaller.

the real problem is if there is a harsh sudden recession you might be looking at a Corbyn primeministership that fights Indyref2 and sets rump UK's character for the post brexit world, that would be a real disaster
Colonel Pantyfloofle
Posted - 20 March 2017 15:27
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We are looking at creating an entity in Luxembourg.

My firm already has a bazillion entities and not enough people/not enough time to be directors of all of them.

So there's a reasonable chance I'll land my first directorship, albeit an extremely tedious one! Thanks Brexit!

starts Googling D&O cover
SumoKing
Posted - 20 March 2017 15:29
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279 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 March 2017 15:23 Report as offensive Report Offensive

Project Fear - so 2016.
____________________________________________________________________

what is your post Brexit plan? How would you create this utopia that nobody has ever managed in the history of britain? And how plausible is it that HMG will follow through on that?
BREXIT!!
Posted - 20 March 2017 15:30
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"We are looking at creating an entity in Luxembourg."

FAKE NEWS
269 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 March 2017 15:49
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1. There is no utopia this side of Heaven.
2. It is therefore not plausible that HMG will create one.
3. However, HMG will be free from certain EU constraints in trying to do their best, with 2 effects:
(a) They will not be able to blame 'Brussel' for their own shortcomings; and
269 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 March 2017 15:51
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1. There is no utopia this side of Heaven.
2. It is therefore not plausible that HMG will create one.
3. However, HMG will be free from certain EU constraints in trying to do their best, with 2 effects:
(a) They will not be able to blame 'Brussel' for their own shortcomings; and
(b) They will be held accountable at elections in a way they can weasel out of now.
4. Being free from certain EU constraints they can govern in a way which benefits the UK in ways which don't have to take account of Parisian trade unionists, Greek farmers, bankers in Frankfurt or Spanish fishermen.

And that's just the beginning...
BREXIT!!
Posted - 20 March 2017 15:53
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"And that's just the beginning..."

YOU CAN SAY THAT AGAIN: £350 MILLION EXTRA A WEEK FOR THE NHS!!
269 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 March 2017 15:54
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What is a great shame is the lack of self-belief people have, feeling the need to hide behind nanny's skirts in the form of the EU rather than go out in the world and engage, which is after all Britain's historic position.
BREXIT!!
Posted - 20 March 2017 15:57
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WE WILL BE BUCCANEERING ONCE AGAIN AND WILL SAIL THE HIGH SEAS, SIGNING FREE TRADE AGREEMENT AFTER FREE TRADE AGREEMENT WITH AWESTRUCK NATIVES DESPERATE TO BE ALLOWED ONBOARD OUR BRAND NEW ROYAL YACHT!!
Cofferdam
Posted - 20 March 2017 15:59
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As 279 will readily confirm - WTO is much better than any deal less than where the other side doesn't lay out the red carpet for Empire 2.0.
SumoKing
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:01
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3 posts to say "no plan" other than a burning desire to get out of the world's greatest free trade, free movement and free capital block

A hideous planned economy and Isolationism is the hiding behind nanny's skirts you talk about
BREXIT!!
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:01
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"Britain's historic position"

THE EMPIRE UPON WHICH THE SUN NEVER SET: AND IT WILL RISE AGAIN!!
Lydia
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:03
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You are all so good at this. It makes me laugh so much.

WTO tariffs are on line - https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tariffs_e/tariff_data_e.htm
Mr Hargreaves
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:11
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much like the colonel (not altogether unsurprisingly) we are also looking at Luxembourg

boy am I looking forward to going there...
BREXIT!!
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:14
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"we are also looking at Luxembourg"

MORE FAKE NEWS
269 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:23
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Why wouldn't people look at Luxembourg?

Hire some office space, screw a plaque on the wall, get access to Europe (presupposing they try to deny it in the first place) and get some tax advantages (presupposing we don't bring them in here, especially if the self-destructive Scotch wander off into the North Sea).

Isn't it what already happens anyway?
BREXIT!!
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:28
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OH WELL IF ITS JUST A PLAQUE ON THE WALL AND A LETTERBOX TO KEEP THE STUPID FOREIGNERS HAPPY THAT'S QUITE DIFFERENT!

JUST AS LONG AS THEY'RE NOT STUPID ENOUGH TO THINK THEY'LL BE ABLE TO PULL THAT KIND OF STUNT ON THIS GREAT NATION POST-BREXIT!!
269 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:31
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What stunt? You mean like a French bank might want to trade in London so it puts up a plaque and a letterbox in order to make sure it can still subject itself to French employment practices whilst taking advantage of the British economic environment.

You have it arse about face.
Keith Nearing
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:32
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To answer the OP - you see that Lisa Sparks world record? It will be something like that, only it will go on for longer, and there's no shiny trophy at the end of it.
BREXIT!!
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:34
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IF ANY FOREIGNERS WANT TO TRADE IN OUR GREAT NATION THEN THEY'LL BE DOING IT PROPERLY OR NOT AT ALL!

A BRASS PLAQUE AND A LETTER BOX MIGHT BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR LUXEMBOURG BUT ITS NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR US!!
269 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:38
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No, again, arse about face. Of course a French bank could opt to put up a plaque and a letterbox and continue subjecting itself to restrictive French employment practices, but it wouldn't unless run by a moron.

Have you ever wondered why there are so many French bankers in London? Did you think the Gauloises and croissants were better in South Ken?
sad banta
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:44
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Something tells me I shouldn't google Lisa Sparks
BREXIT!!
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:46
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"Of course a French bank could opt to put up a plaque and a letterbox and continue subjecting itself to restrictive French employment practices"

WELL THEY CAN THESE DAYS GIVEN PASSPORTING, BUT REST ASSURED THAT AFTER BREXIT THEY WILL NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT THEIR PERSONNEL, ACTIVITY (AND CAPITAL) IS BASED IN THIS GREAT NATION IF THEY WANT TO DO BUSINESS HERE, AND A BRASS PLAQUE AND A LETTERBOX SIMPLY WON'T CUT IT!!
269 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:46
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I like Douglas Carswell's suggestions, banana613. You stick to FPTP elections but have 2-member constituencies (halved in number from current total) where the first two candidates get in. Also subject all sitting MPs to compulsory open primaries every election cycle.
269 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:48
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BREXIT still avoiding the issue massively. If passporting means you can run a French bank's UK operations from Paris why do French bankers like the British work environment so much?

It's as if he's avoiding the issue or something.
Used Psychology
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:56
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To answer semi-seriously, WTO terms with the EU would be a catastrophe.

But it won;t come to that, what you'll get is a continuation agreement as various bits of the EU relationship get unplugged and the trade stuff meanders on until 1) The UK general election kicks in or 2) the EU figures out it has reached its best point of leverage and settles on where it gets to.

The real question is why anyone in the UK is happy for the 3 Brexiteers plus May to be saying leaving without a deal is a valid option.
Used Psychology
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:56
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French bankers like the Uk operating environment so much thanks to the personal taxation set up of the UK - hence the French proposing welcome packages to large relocating banks.
Scot Chegg
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:58
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I don't know why people still think that "WTO terms" are what we might end up with.

They're not a fall back option. They are an option that we will have to work on to achieve, and a rubbish one that is significantly worse than getting a deal with the EU and monumentally worse than our current state of play.

We still have to negotiate our WTO schedules with the 100+ other members. It's not a case of "oh, so no deal with the rEU, let's just trade on WTO terms". Oh no, we actually have to negotiate them as well. And it hardly gives us much comfort on services, which is actually the lynchpin of our future export economy.

So the options actually are:
(1) deal with rEU
(2) deal on WTO terms
(3) fail to reach an agreement on either (1) or (2)
sporting_zucchini
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:59
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"Presumably the financial services industry will be super fvcked without passporting"

That begs the question whether some EEA regulatory authorities will accept that all UK financial services companies meet their national requirements. Post-Brexit, the need to apply for authorisation might finally mean that the well-publicised fines and penalties imposed for bad conduct and mis-selling will bite back. One can imagine the panic if they must satisfy a "fit and proper" test in order to be allowed to carry on their shady business activities ...

Without "Passporting" these feral organisations might be forced to start behaving ethically and stop market-rigging and other fraudulent malpractice. Oh dear, such a pity.

Silver lining, Hank.
Scot Chegg
Posted - 20 March 2017 17:01
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*what we would end up with if no deal is reached with the EU


sorry that first line didn't make sense
269 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 March 2017 17:03
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Used Psychology
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:56 Report as offensive Report Offensive
French bankers like the Uk operating environment so much thanks to the personal taxation set up of the UK - hence the French proposing welcome packages to large relocating banks.

--

Thank you, UPee, you get it.

You will also understand that a one-off welcome package granted by the French government is unlikely to convince many in the long-term. If it is the right thing to do it wouldn't be a welcome package, it would be standard operating procedure. Good luck importing 'Ango-Saxon' business attitudes into France.
Scot Chegg
Posted - 20 March 2017 17:05
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you seem to be claiming detailed knowledge of the relocation plans of London's financial services occupiers hanners

which is pretty surprising given that most of them haven't announced their plans and have admitted they do not know what they are going to do

so I smell bullsh1t emitting from each and every word of your post
BREXIT!!
Posted - 20 March 2017 17:08
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"why do French bankers like the British work environment so much?"

BECAUSE WE'RE GREAT BRITAIN AND LONDON IS ONE OF THE WORLD'S LEADING FINANCIAL CENTRES

AND LET ME TELL YOU THIS: ITS ONLY GOING TO GET BETTER AFTER BREXIT BECAUSE WE HAVE THE WHIP HANDS IN THE NEGOTIATIONS AND WILL HAVE OUR CAKE AND EAT OUR CAKE!!
Scot Chegg
Posted - 20 March 2017 17:09
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sporting_zucchini
Posted - 20 March 2017 16:59
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"Presumably the financial services industry will be super fvcked without passporting"

That begs the question whether some EEA regulatory authorities will accept that all UK financial services companies meet their national requirements. Post-Brexit, the need to apply for authorisation might finally mean that the well-publicised fines and penalties imposed for bad conduct and mis-selling will bite back. One can imagine the panic if they must satisfy a "fit and proper" test in order to be allowed to carry on their shady business activities ...

Without "Passporting" these feral organisations might be forced to start behaving ethically and stop market-rigging and other fraudulent malpractice. Oh dear, such a pity.

Silver lining, Hank.


Not really relevant to the UK though, given that this nice clean and ethical financial services system will all be on the continent, whereas we will be in an opaque deregulated low tax offshore haven where market-rigging and other fraudulent malpractice can be continued without the offensive eye of forrin EUSSR technocrats, eh.

So that's a fail point there unfort.
Used Psychology
Posted - 20 March 2017 17:18
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Any financial institution that does not have an updated plan involving relocating their EU pas sported office into the 27 needs their heads examining.

The idea that the banks won't move because their staff like the lifestyle has no memory of what banks have done since 84 to its staff when it suited them.

It won't happen in one big shock, but Over time London will wippfind itself cut out of European trades as local offices handle deals for EU purposes.

Happens already in a whole boatload of scenarios via Luxembourg.
Scot Chegg
Posted - 20 March 2017 17:22
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UP they all have tentative relocation plans, but they're flexible and not yet public (how can they be anything else, they don't know what the post-Brexit situation will look like), so hanners is chatting bullsh1t when he claims to know what they're doing and where they're going
269 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 March 2017 17:25
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I am speculating.

And basing it on common sense not pants-twisting fear and endless Jeremiads. You go to UPee and BREXIT for that.
Used Psychology
Posted - 20 March 2017 17:26
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Indeed, the main issues seem to be booking office capacity and relocation planning, not any passion to be part of the great Brexit adventure.
Used Psychology
Posted - 20 March 2017 17:28
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Um, from where I am sitting, it is not some fear based thing, but a mixed bag of indicators. Stuff is not happening fast on either side, of good news or bad, but there is plenty of stuff happening.
Scot Chegg
Posted - 20 March 2017 17:29
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lolololololol @ hanners claiming to have common sense

genuine lol

you are the very definition of someone who does not go for common sense - you voted Brexit you toolbag - that's entirely an emotive, devoid of common sense approach


this is nearly as good as when hanners claimed not to be a woman-h7er and his entire evidential basis for that was that he don7s money to the Tories
Excession
Posted - 20 March 2017 17:45
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'sorry that first line didn't make sense'
Just the first line, huh?


We'll have a transitional arrangement at the end of the 2 years as the EU won't be able to negotiate a full deal within that time frame but won't want to risk a cliff edge trade collapse at that point.

I imagine we will try to prioritise deals on passporting for the financial sectors, car, aerospace and pharma. That's where the money/our expertise is.

There will be some more or less free trade deal eventually but it will take time.

If the EU wants to try to 'punish us' by offering us a worse deal than, say, Canada then that will also obviously slow things down a lot - but I actually think it will then go one of two ways:
a) full on EU crisis and either restructuring or collapse renders the whole thing moot; or
b) if the EU survives the next few years without any more existential crises they will feel less threatened by Brexit and come to a sensible deal by year 4 or 5.

As I;ve said before, I don't think Brexit is a great idea, but other than those who work in City financial services, it's not likely to be as critical as everyone is making out...


Used Psychology
Posted - 20 March 2017 17:50
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Heh@Excession.

Don't forget car manufacturing, legal services, food export and pharmaceuticals.

So nothing major really.
Excession
Posted - 20 March 2017 18:14
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I think I mentioned car and pharma didn't I?

Legal is probably a mixed bag - I've no idea what % of overall legal work involves EU financial work which is at risk. It's basically 0% up here in the North but obviously will be higher in London..

Food exports?
I think the EU will be keener to do a low tariff deal with us than vice-versa on that on, so no need for us to priortise it - already the Irish and Spanish farmers have been pushing saying free trade with UK is critical to stave off sector collapse in their national press.
BREXIT!!
Posted - 20 March 2017 18:18
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WE'RE GOING TO GET THE BEST POSSIBLE DEAL

THE BEST POSSIBLE

BANK ON IT
Scot Chegg
Posted - 20 March 2017 18:49
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ad excessionem m7, u really need to stop obsessing over me. I've not even mentioned anything in your post that's related to mine, so dunno why u felt any need to quote me other than perhaps because u want my attention and a kiss or summat?


ps megaLOL @ u once again making big predictions and great claims with absolutely no basis. u don't half chat absolute sh1t
#ivankabehired
Posted - 20 March 2017 18:57
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There will be no deal with the EU
Scot Chegg
Posted - 20 March 2017 19:08
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The tariff deal should be easy.

Let's just have none either way, yes? Yes, deal.

Basically, it's up to us to behave on that point. The problem is all to do with us having no negotiating strength in isolation regarding decent terms of trade in services but without free movement. So we're going to have to leverage elsewhere. But we're going to find that difficult because we've got nothing other than slapping tariffs on imports if we're going to get a good deal elsewhere, given that we've essentially given up the booting out EU citizens threat.

So at the moment the negotiations look like going:

EU: "free trade in goods, no tariffs all round?"
UK: "Can we discuss trade in services first?"
EU: "OK".
UK: "Can we have as full and free access to for services as possible, save for the movement of people?"
EU: "No, movement of people is a significant barrier to trade in services. Sorry."
UK: "Well we'll put tariffs on your goods then."
EU: "I thought you didn't want to discuss trade in goods yet? And anyway I thought you were committed to as full and free trade in goods as possible? You know, as a WTO member and all. The corn laws are pretty C19th."
*UK Gov whines to press that the EU is being unreasonable*
UK: "We're an important export market for you. You need to persuade us to lower tariffs."
EU: "Erm, we're an even more important export market for you. You've got just as much an interest, if not more of an interest, in maintaining tariff free trade in goods. Why don't we just go ahead and agree tariff free trade in goods for both parties?"
UK: "We don't want to discuss trade in goods yet."
Used Psychology
Posted - 20 March 2017 20:40
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Sorry emission, brain freeze.

But I did have time to suspect that fisheries, IT and gaming as ones which will be thrown under the bus in negotiations.
Excession
Posted - 20 March 2017 22:39
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SERGIO'S words are all there but as usual hurt your brain when you try to make sense of them.

If passporting or equivalence aren't on the table then that would damage the UK more than it helps the EU.

It's the reverse if WTO tariffs end up being applied to Irish or French agricultural products or German engineering products or whatever.

It's just like any negotiation - if you don't give what the other party wants when it's relatively cheap for you, then you are unlikely to be able to get what you want from them in return (even if it's relatively cheap for them to give).

The damage is more likely to be that banks will move work to the EU because of the long period of uncertainty about what will happen.



Scot Chegg
Posted - 20 March 2017 22:46
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I can't help it if you're not very good at understanding things.

You are utterly deluded if you think trade in goods is anywhere near weighted in favour of the UK as trade in services is weighted towards the EU. Truly deluded.
old git roundabout
Posted - 21 March 2017 08:51
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have to hand it to Sergio - he has taken the art of bad losing to stratospheric new heights.
Siegfreid
Posted - 21 March 2017 08:56
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Ominous - "when the UK comes to the table, they will have to eat what's there."
Hank
Posted - 21 March 2017 08:59
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Excession this is not a normal commercial negotiation - just as the UK has hurt itself economically for political reasons by brexiting, the EU will be perfectly prepared to hurt itself economically for the political end of discouraging further leavers. And in percentage terms the UK is a considerably smaller export market for the combined 27 nations of the EU than they are for us.
sporting_zucchini
Posted - 21 March 2017 09:30
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"And in percentage terms the UK is a considerably smaller export market for the combined 27 nations of the EU than they are for us. "

Hank, would you like to translate that from percentages into billions? Sterling or Euros, you choose. Let's see if that changes the picture.

Meanwhile, in the news, HSBC denies massive money laundering, stating in terms that AML regs were complied with. Sounds like deja-vu, all over again. If you were a banking regulator in one of the EEA states, would you consider whether "Passporting" encourages or discourages this sort of thing? Or just let them carry on - *shrug* -stylee.
daddycam
Posted - 21 March 2017 09:32
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What Sergio says.
Hank
Posted - 21 March 2017 09:34
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Hank, would you like to translate that from percentages into billions? Sterling or Euros, you choose. Let's see if that changes the picture.

No, because percentages are important as it is percentages not absolute figures which dictate the importance to the negotiating party and hence its negotiating strength.
BREXIT!!
Posted - 21 March 2017 09:38
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"No, because percentages are important as it is percentages not absolute figures which dictate the importance to the negotiating party and hence its negotiating strength."

WHAT ROT: WE WILL HAVE THE WHIP HAND IN THE NEGOTIATIONS AND EVERYONE KNOWS IT!
Hank
Posted - 21 March 2017 09:38
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Lets look at it the other way around - imagine we were negotiating a trade deal with say Iceland. Lets say we each export £10m worth of goods and services to each other. The absolute figures would be the same for each country but who do you think the deal would be more important to?
Scot Chegg
Posted - 21 March 2017 09:44
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old git roundabout
Posted - 21 March 2017 08:51
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have to hand it to Sergio - he has taken the art of bad losing to stratospheric new heights.


go on, what have I lost? I mean, I know you are pretty bovine, but even you must have realised that someone has to win for someone to lose
sporting_zucchini
Posted - 21 March 2017 09:58
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I disagree, ogr.

try bathospheric new depths

deeper than the Marianas Trench
Scot Chegg
Posted - 21 March 2017 10:04
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Scot Chegg
Posted - 21 March 2017 10:05
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who are you zucchini? are you yet another rightard sockpuppet?
Saillaw
Posted - 21 March 2017 10:15
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There's one huge practical issue with all of the bankers in London suddenly relocating to Paris and Frankfurt. It takes years to get huge scale new office developments and associated housing approved, even if you have a special fast track system, and then it takes years to build it all and you need to find the finance for it somewhere.
Scot Chegg
Posted - 21 March 2017 10:20
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That would probably be why Paris announced several new skyscrapers in La Defense with half mil sqm office space a few weeks ago then eh Saillaw?
Hank
Posted - 21 March 2017 12:53
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It is pretty simple really - ultimately the financial centre of the European economy is going to located in the largest European economy - the EU. It will not happen over night but London will gradually lose its pre-eminence. Likewise international corporates who currently have HQs in the UK. I expect Ireland to do very very well out of this - especially from American corporates.
snowglobe
Posted - 21 March 2017 13:31
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What Hank, UP and Excession have been saying. With one exception, Hank. The Irish regulator is being cautious about proposed relocations to Ireland of complex banking businesses. They see it as a risk they are not equipped to regulate and manage.
Used Psychology
Posted - 21 March 2017 13:48
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Wot Snowglobe said, there is a finite appetite for what the Irish market can handle in terms of banks to move, but mid and back office stuff will probably be more than welcome.