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Joshua v Klitschko
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Hotblack Desiato
Posted - 20 April 2017 16:12
Having watched and re-watched just about every Joshua fight and most of Klitschko's recent fights, having pored over their respective records and taking a look at the training videos that both fighters have been circulating, and while this might be famous last words, I think that Joshua is going to obliterate Klitschko within 5 rounds. I say this because.

1. Klitschko has mostly fought shorter opponents, whom he has been allowed to clinch, lean on and shove around, by the referees, sometimes (in the case of the Povetkin fight) to the point of turning the fight into a travesty. When he has fought taller opponents (Wach, Fury) he has either gone the distance, or lost. Joshua is essentially the same height as Klitschko, so this wrapping up and leaning tactic is not going to work either at all, or to anything like the same extent, because Joshua does not need to get on the inside to hit Klitschko.

2. Everyone goes on about Joshua's chin, because he once got wobbled by Dillian Whyte. Klitschko, however, has been knocked out 3 times in his professional career, by some fairly pedestrian heavyweights. Based on recent videos, Joshua has been doing an absolute shedload of neck exercises and now has a neck the size of a blue whale's artery, so I doubt he is going to prove to be chinny.

3. Joshua is 14 years younger than Klitschko and faster. Whether Wlad likes it or not, he is going to be slower than AJ both in terms of footwork and handspeed. Experience and guile can compensate a bit for this, but only a bit.

4. Not only is Joshua faster than Klitschko he also hits harder. A lot harder. And more over unlike a Tyson, or Tua, or Frazier or David Haye, who get their power from big hooks or big overhand rights, Joshua knocks people out with straight right hands and short fast hooks - i.e. shorter, faster, more direct punches which are harder to avoid or parry.

5. Joshua is fighting at home and will have the crowd behind him.
Mr Hargreaves
Posted - 20 April 2017 16:14
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Agreed but it will take longer than 5 rounds imo
Twinkle twinkle little wang
Posted - 20 April 2017 16:17
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That was exactly my call on the thread earlier. Also Klitsch has been out for a LONG time
Hotblack Desiato
Posted - 20 April 2017 16:27
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Hargreaves my only reason for positing 5 rounds is that all Joshua has to do is land one decent right and Klitschko will be visibly rattled (and at 41 just wont be able to recover). I see that happening within 3 rounds and thereafter it is only a matter of time before Joshua finishes him off - given his skill I would allow Klitschko up to round 5 before the inevitable
old git roundabout
Posted - 20 April 2017 17:44
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Klitschko will tread on his toe. Worked against Haye
Force me Jaw
Posted - 20 April 2017 20:34
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Firstly fair play to Joshua for taking this fight. He didn't have to, not in his 19th fight, and although Klitschko was beaten by Fury, I don't consider him to be a spent force. Thanks to Fury as well, because without him beating Klitschko, Joshua would never have become the IBF champion.

Klitschko sees this as a defining fight, and is putting maximum effort in. He was also mentally bamboozled by Fury before fight. He also did not have the spongy ring that he had favoured for a number of his fights. However, he has kept himself in excellent physical condition and has not been in the sort of wars that many heavyweights have been in.

This is a big step up for Joshua. A number of his recent fights have been walk overs, Molina and Charles "I walk the earth as a God" Martin, for the title. I would like him to have has a fight with the likes of Kubrat Pulev, before fighting Klitschko.

I take AJ to win, by knock out.

It will be at the start a battle of the jabs. Klitschko can't hold back like he did against Fury, because otherwise he is getting knocked out early. AJ showed after he received that punch from Whyte, a lack of head movement. He can't do that against Klitschko otherwise he is in trouble.
Hotblack Desiato
Posted - 21 April 2017 13:21
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"Klitschko can't hold back like he did against Fury, because otherwise he is getting knocked out early."

A good point. I watched a Sky programme on Klitschko last night which included footage of his previous knockouts/knockdowns.

I had not appreciated that he had got knocked down 3 times by Samuel Peter before going on to beat him.

Thinking about Klitschko's recent fights, I think that the reliance on the jab and the clinch and lean is his solution to his weak chin - by barely throwing his right until his opponent is worn down by jabs/leaning he minimises exposing his chin until his opponent is no longer in a condition to knock him out.

But as you rightly said that strategy is not going to work against Joshua. Klitschko's jab alone is not going to keep Joshua off him and he won't be able to wrap up and lean on Joshua because they are basically the same height and reach but Joshua is stronger. To keep Joshua at bay he is going to have to throw his right a lot more often, but if he does, he is exposing himself.

"AJ showed after he received that punch from Whyte, a lack of head movement." I agree with that comment, but having rewatched the Joshua/Whyte fight last night I would make the following observations:

- The lack of head movement was most pronounced in rounds 2 and 3 after he had got chinned by the uppercut. I think it reflects a lack of experience of what to do when you have been clocked one (because this has almost never happened to him) rather than an inability to move his head at all as from round 4 onwards he was moving much better.

- Everyone talks up the "Joshua getting wobbled by Whyte" because it is the only time in any of his fights that he has been in any sort of difficulty whatsoever. By comparison to what other heavyweights fight their way through it was nothing and most heavyweights in an evenly matched fight (or against a superior opponent) will have at least one such period which they have to spend in survival mode after being clocked one. If you look at Klitchsko v Fury, there are periods in that fight towards the end when both Klitschko and Fury are clearly in temporary difficulties after a big punch but no-one says on the basis of that that they are both "chinny" fighters (people might say that Klitschko is "chinny" but that is based on his knockout defeats and the three knockdowns he took against Samuel Peter)

To be honest it reminds me of the first Bruno v Tyson fight if only of the difference in reaction. During that fight Bruno wobbled Tyson (possibly for the first time in Tyson's pro career). However because the AJ "wobble" came earlier in his career (before he was a world champion) but at a time when there was a lot of as-yet-unsubstantiated hype about him, it is seen less a complement to Whyte than as grounds to doubt the hype. Whereas with Tyson by the time Bruno hit him one everyone knew that Tyson was the real thing, and therefore it was regarded more as "exactly the sort of thing that happens to heavyweights from time to time and well done Frank" rather than "proof that the emperor has no clothes because he got wobbled by Frank Bruno"