Government gaslight

1.  There are no shortages (ignoring fact shelves were emptying and garages were closing before people cottoned on and started stocking up)

2.  Problems as bad or worse in EU so not to do with Brexit (allthough there are no empty shelves or queues for petrol there and they are now passing emergency legislation to get Eastern European’s back in)

3.  All fault of public who are panic buying (even though problems obviously started before it hit public conscousness)

Big Brother stuff, does anyone actually believe their largely contradictory nonsense?

“Its nothing to do with Brexit”

The problem they have is that ordinary Brexit voters who spent maybe 5 minutes thinking about their vote and so are not quite so ideologically committed to it, can see that this is obvious bullshit.

Yeah - a lot of politicos and btl frothers will come up with contorted reasons to deny that its anything to do with Brexit.

But when we lack lorry drivers because they’ve all fooked off back to Eastern Europe and cant be arsed to do jobs in the UK anymore. It really is rather unavoidably obvious that it is related to Brexit.

see also vegetable pickers - places are now offering £30 per hour and still cant fill vacancies, turns out there was not a vast pool of english people willing to work hard for a decent wage if only they were not undercut by pesky foriegners who can live out of a cardboard box after all.

Covid may have brought the government a few more months to credibly lie about the impact of brexit but they cant cling to that excuse for long as other european countries go back to normal and pull ahead of us.

I just cant see why these drivers (of which everyone presumes are available in eastern europe) will come to the UK rather than germany, netherlands france etc where there are similar shortages.

This happened in the last Tory produced NHS staffing crisis in the nineties when to sort the service out we had to bring in doctors from across europe at insanely high wages.   I recall Germans doctors and nurses earning in a couple of months working on NHS waiting lists what they would in a year at home.

It’s been clearly explained that many of these issues are due to Gulliver straining at the guy ropes. This makes sense to me. 
 

The lorry driver issue is multi-factorial and mostly due to RHA member lorry companies failing to respond to an aging work force. It is also clear that wages in haulage were unsustainably low and needed to rise. 

nice trollling Cypto old boy- every major EU country has the same problem re lorry drivers but they dont have garages without petrol because the EU wide labour market allows them to flex.    Making UK wages higher than in Europe without an increase in productivity will not benefit anyone in the long run, it will just lead to rampant inflation and an economy in relative decline.

People didn’t vote for brexit so they’d have to do these shitty jobs themselves. They voted for brexit because they’re superior to the forrins who should go ‘home’ and leave us to run on unicorn piss. 

If you’re a lorry driver who voted Brexit you’d be feeling pretty pleased right now as your wages increase. This is exactly what Brexit was designed to deliver for working people. 
 

It’s really odd to see lefties like you Guy lining up with big business and the RHA against the working man. 

The DVLA not processing HGV tests and paperwork promptly is at least as big a contributor to the HGV driver shortage as Brexit is. One lesson to be learnt from this is not to centralise gov agencies in places like Swansea. However, poor management is widespread across public services and affects lower income groups more than higher income groups. It's interesting that nobody is holding the DVLA to account for this. Labour don't want to annoy Unison and other public sector trades unions.

see also vegetable pickers - places are now offering £30 per hour and still cant fill vacancies, turns out there was not a vast pool of english people willing to work hard for a decent wage if only they were not undercut by pesky foriegners who can live out of a cardboard box after all.

The "vegetable pickers" issue is less about hourly rates and more about labour mobility. When looked at by income group, the UK has incredibly poor labour mobility among lower income groups. There's also the issue of seasonal work affecting benefits. If you run a "safety net" type benefits system rather than a "paid in" type benefits system then people are not going to give up their safety net when they will likely end up in it again.

*can we solve this? no?*

*can we shirk this? mebbe*

8.  This Government is not in the business of propping up the private sector - we expect that the markets will respond - that's what they're meant to do.

The DVLA not processing HGV tests and paperwork promptly is at least as big a contributor to the HGV driver shortage as Brexit is.

Fair do's for admitting Brexit at least partially at fault. It's more than most cultists have managed.

One lesson to be learnt from this is not to centralise gov agencies in places like Swansea.

Levelling down?

It's interesting that nobody is holding the DVLA to account for this.

Interesting is one word to describe it. Obvious is a better one. They couldn't do testing for the best part of 18 months due to covid rules, everybody understands this. 

I agree with you Rob, but that all goes to show getting rid of the pool of flexible labour the EU provided without reforming our system of benefits was a bit stupid no?  As many things a citizens income would solve this problem.  Indeed if Brexit allowed us to actually introduce a citizens income which would solve so many issues at a stroke I may actually change my mind about it.

@Guy  Internal labour mobility among lower income groups in the UK has been a problem for 30 years. One good thing that will hopefully come from Brexit is that the issue can no longer be papered over by EU migrant workers.  Apart from the benefits system, the council housing system, involving the council house for life (or even for multiple generations) at way below market rent, is a major contributor.  Why would someone on a lower income move from an unemployment blackspot like Blackpool to somewhere growing like Slough if they are going to not only have to pay a higher rent but also give up the security that council housing gives them?  They don't move and instead immigrants fill those jobs in Slough while the person in Blackpool stays there on benefits.  

All successful western countries with low birth rates need immigrant workers-  Japans astonishing relative decline from world leader to also ran in the last 30 years is testament to this.

They couldn't do testing for the best part of 18 months due to covid rules, everybody understands this. 

It's not just testing, it's processing paperwork. DVLA has been a mess, partly because of a very high Covid infection rate in Swansea and Welsh gov rules. Not centralising in one place should have avoided that to an extend. If levelling up to you means pushing public sector jobs into parts of the country with high unemployment, low labour mobility, low education levels and poor work ethic that was tried for 13 years under Labour and the results don't look particularly good.

Guy you enjoy the privileges of a job with barriers to entry creating high wages. So do I. If every law graduate could work in City Law without the need for a TC then I’m sure your wages would fall. Your industry has created a choke point (getting an acceptable TC) as has mine. 
 

Lorry driving has fairly low entry requirements although it seems the HGV test pass rate is below 60% so they are still there. If you’re a lorry driver then you’ve seen your wages stagnate since 2004 with jobs being offered at £11ph or less before this crisis. Why? Because your boss could hire 3 Stanislavs who obtained their licences overseas and who are prepared to live in a HMO for a few years sending remittances home. For them £11ph is worth it. 

It will be interesting to see if the SQE removes the 'barrier to entry'.  It seems we are reverting to what we had many years ago - you basically trained 'on the job', passing exams whilst gaining practical work experience and earning a salary. 

I dont work in City Law Crypto (I did but I hated it) and probably earn less than you think.

I take your second paragraph, but ultimately the answer is to have a minimum livable wage and if people want to earn more they need to get better skills to allow them to be more productive. The answer is not to simply stop competition for lower wage jobs, yes there may be short term benefit to native lorry drivers but long term our economy will be fooked through labour shortages and wage inflation unrelated to increases in productivity

 

 

The way we live in the U.K. depends upon quite a few people being paid poverty wages (and therefore living in poverty) and it requires 5x more COthan is sustainable. If we transition to no poverty and carbon neutral lives then something has to give. 

Law does not have streets paved with Gold. 

Outside of the top end of the City pay in law is unremarkable, as per the 2018 Law Society data on average Solicitor salaries:

Greater London – £88,000
South of England – £56,000 
Midlands and Wales – £46,000
North of England – £43,000

 

The way we live in the U.K. depends upon quite a few people being paid poverty wages (and therefore living in poverty) and it requires 5x more COthan is sustainable. If we transition to no poverty and carbon neutral lives then something has to give. 

So much this.

Public Service Announcement: Biggie will be around shortly to remind you that there's always Dubai where you can have actual slavery as opposed to mere poverty wages, while using 500x CO2 than is sustainable. He can fook right off.

The problem with "labour mobility", and I say this as someone who moved from a grim Midlands city to London, is that the vast majority of people like to feel part of their community.  People want jobs to come to them.  This is the same in much more economically successful European countries like Switzerland, Netherlands, Denmark and so on.

Having London/SE subsidise the rest of the country has been tried and has failed.

The advent of home working for a large percentage of time should be effective at spreading wealth around country.   I know various individuals who now spend their high incomes outside the SE now the daily commute is not necessary.

@Vertigo  Yes, in the UK people want jobs to come to them.  However, I don't agree with your comment re that being what happens in much more economically successful European countries.  I quickly run through some examples:

France: Very centralised country with Paris basin vs rest of country phenomenon very similar to London/SE vs rest of country phenomenon in UK.  Differences: (i) French state a lot more interventionist so does more to move the wealth around more; (ii) south of France has better weather/lifestyle so attracts tourism and mobile wealth in a way that north of England/Wales/Scotland cannot do

Germany: Regional government and regionalised economies with multiple different centres. Good transport connectivity between everywhere. Consequences of WW2 were 10m+ Germans moving from east to current German borders plus 3m+ moving from old East Germany to old West Germany, so actually a large number of Germans don't have very deep roots where they live. German benefits system based on "paid in" rather than "safety net" so supports labour mobility and German housing system is based on need/support rather than a completely separate state housing system so also supports labour mobility.

Switzerland: Massive immigration into Switzerland from elsewhere which means Swiss natives have not needed to move. Also, transport is great so most of relatively populated Switzerland can easily commute daily to one of the five largest cities: Zurich, Geneva, Lausanne, Basel, Berne.

Netherlands/Denmark: Small countries with good public transport systems. However Denmark has some of the phenomenon of job growth being concentrated in Copenhagen and Jutlanders not wanting to move to Copenhagen for work and being resentful. Don't take my word for it, read it here: https://cphpost.dk/?p=25527 

Italy/Spain/Portugal/Ireland: Everyone accepts that you have to go to where the jobs are. Always has been internal migration, e.g. from Andalusia to Catalonia from 1930s to 1980s, from south of Italy to north of Italy, from rural Ireland to Dublin. And of course there was plenty of cross-border migration form those countries also, e.g. Portuguese to France and Luxembourg, Italians to US and Australia, Irish to UK and Ireland.

In conclusion, yes, people want the jobs to come to them. But in other countries people accept that is not going to happen and get on with moving.

I don't count France/Italy/Spain/Portugal/Ireland/Germany (East Germany is fvckd) as more successful.

Switzerland, Netherlands and Denmark have thriving local communities.  Admittedly they are much smaller than England and their public transport systems are much better so it is realistic to commute much longer distances.  Interesting that Switzerland has a tiny population but (at least) five globally competitive cities.  We have probably only have one.

Interesting that Switzerland has a tiny population but (at least) five globally competitive cities.  We have probably only have one.

If England had embraced PR and regional devolution 70 years ago then it would look more like Switzerland than it does currently. Switzerland has also had a much more restrictive citizenship regime than the UK, i.e. immigrants can come in but getting Swiss citizenship involves a lot more than just spending five years there. 

Netherlands has many of the same problems as the UK. I don't think that, on average, there is much more a sense of community there than there is in England. But, as with Switzerland, there is more regional/municipal autonomy and control than there is in England. One very simple example: in England Sunday opening are determined nationally; in Netherlands Sunday and public holiday opening is decided by local municipalities.

 

Germany is definitely much more successful in organising its economics around the country than the UK. 

This is not really accurate and suggests a level of top-down organisation that does not exist. Two examples:

(1)  Germany started from a completely different place. If Germany had been a single centralised state for 500+ years like UK and France it would look different.

(2)  Germany is geographically different from the UK. One of the reasons for London/SE dominance is that Dover-Calais is the inevitable route for trade with the rest of Europe. Germany has no equivalent as it's in the middle of Europe with trade routes going off in all directions.

That does not mean that the UK does not and cannot do things better. However, we can learn relatively little from Germany as to what to do.

I think it's ludicrous to suggest that not creating desperate people willing to do anything is a failure of the UK. It's also all well and good to say part of the Brexit "plan" is to raise wages to encourage UK workers to take the relevant jobs, but you have to ask:

- how are those wages being funded? Assuming a steady money supply, you must be taking that money from somewhere else in society. Are their employers flourishing so much that they can afford it? Are people able to pay more for their services? 

- if you are not skilling an economic underclass to be able to compete for better jobs, are they really going to participate in migration on the off chance of a job, or will they use blackmarket opportunities where they are to plug the gap? 

Also I am not sure any of this was run as a side of a bus campaign by those looking to reset the UK welfare state or ensure the public paid more for their services.

It's also well and good to say there are a range of factors re. lorry drivers, but the simple fact is that removing EU migrant workers blew off the big toe when COVID was about to impose a fairly lengthy walk.