You can see the history book already, assuming anyone is left to write it. Weakened Democrat President failed to rein in strategic ally. War escalated inevitably.
I love how from a few news reports, we seem to think that we know what's going on with certainty.
From my 5 decades on this planet, I have learned that in any crisis such as this, there is huge amounts of unannounced diplomacy going on in the background that isn't publicised. Calling Biden weak is over simplifying it, you really have no idea how hard people are working in the back channels to get resolutions.
Biden appears to be weak because... it's an election year and he cannot be seen by a huge and influential Dem voting block as going against Israel. Bibi knows this.
Oh I’m not saying Biden is weak, I’m anticipating the retro view if it all goes horribly wrong. Biden is the best thing to happen to the US in decades. The talent in his administration is off the scale. And if you don’t like how maturity manages crisis, millennials, you’re gonna hate responsibility. Buckle up.
I have a horrible feeling that the Iranian army will turn out to be like the Iraqi army, a few very good disciplined units but generally conscripts who leg it at the first sign of trouble.
The talent in his administration is off the scale.
Except for his stunningly inept national security adviser. A very intelligent lawyer with no grasp of international politics nor the dynamics or motivations of a mafia state.
Israel needs to be brought down a peg or two/learn some hard lessons including how to get through a day without murdering people. I don't think Iran is the one to teach it.
I have a horrible feeling that the Iranian army will turn out to be like the Iraqi army, a few very good disciplined units but generally conscripts who leg it at the first sign of trouble.
Why a "horrible" feeling? I have a very encouraging feeling that they will turn out like that. Certainly far fewer Iranian deaths would be in the offing if so.
Probably fewer than were bombed whilst defenceless trying to get away. If you stand a fight there's a chance of being taken prisoner but if someone just bombs you while you're stuck in traffic jam there's a very high likelihood of just dying.
I don't think Iran truly wants a wider war. The leadership may be an unpleasant lot (but which ME country's government ain't) but know full well Netanyahu is trying to bait them into war with the US. They're enraged at the Israeli strike in Syria, and will I'm sure try something - but will probably try to calibrate it so that the US won't step in (at least not in a major way). Would imagine that - just as Israel's action took place in Syria - striking Israel itself is not on, at least not by weapons that can be directly linked to Iran. Israel doesn't have embassies or diplomatic missions in any of the countries Iran could conceivably strike, and targeted assassinations of senior Israeli military or intelligence personnel in eg. the Gulf states would depend a great deal on the quality of intelligence they have. If I had to guess, increased activity by proxies (Houthis etc) is the most likely step.
This is a fundamental misunderstanding of war. Attacking soldiers as they retreat to a more advantageous position is completely legitimate. If the Iraqi army wanted to surrender then they could have done so and would have been protected by the Geneva conventions.
If you stand a fight there's a chance of being taken prisoner
No the way to be taken prisoner is to surrender. If you stand and fight you will be attacked and likely killed. If you retreat you are likely to be attacked and killed.
Does anyone understand why Israel hit the Iranian embassy in Syria? There is a suggestion of a high value target in there but it seems an insane risk to take to kill one guy unless they want to provoke Iran into retaliation.
It makes no sense that Israel would want retaliation from Iran though. It might shore up US support I guess but again it is such a huge risk to take. Presumably Iran would calibrate a response initially but if there is an escalation, a big attack on Tel Aviv is not impossible and that would be catastrophic for Israel.
Depends how prepared you think either country is to use the nuclear weapons that they are bith believed to have at their disposal. It’s the classic Cold War stand off being played out by different foes
Which, FAOD, I don’t believe that either of them wants to do (because of the consequences of what that would mean in retaliation for both). But I have no doubt that Israel would love to provoke Iran into doing something that results in the US deploying troops to the region
Just so people are aware - the Iraqi Army circa 2003 was in large part bought off and paid to surrender by bribing a bunch of key generals - they didn’t run away from cowardice - they were (a lot of them) ordered not to resist. That is why the US forces had such an easy ride to Baghdad. There was plenty of contemporaneous reporting about this - it’s just not mentioned very often now (and was not emphasized even then because it’s a bit inconvenient for the narrative of the ever victorious US army)
It would be a mistake for Israel to nuke Iran. A huge huge huge mistake.
Far better strategy for them would be to selectively target the leadership and the Guard and create the opportunity for Iranian opposition to throw a coup
Israel is clearly not going to nuke anyone unless the threat to Israel itself is existential. They have the same rules of nuclear engagement as everyone else.
Also, they’re not going to nuke anyone without US permission because Biden has the launch codes
Not sure about Biden having the codes for the Israeli nukes. They developed their own with assistance from France and the Brits. It's all a big secret though so who really knows?
Davos’ punditry on geopolitical matters is famous ofc, who remembers “yup, this looks pretty planned - see you at the front line” when the ukrainians accidentally bombed Poland,
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You can see the history book already, assuming anyone is left to write it. Weakened Democrat President failed to rein in strategic ally. War escalated inevitably.
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And no, I’m hoping all these barbarians just fvcking stop.
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presumably no-one on this board has this hope
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No, I’m hoping that Biden and his Cabinet take meaningful steps to de-escalate and lay the foundations of a two-state solution
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I love how from a few news reports, we seem to think that we know what's going on with certainty.
From my 5 decades on this planet, I have learned that in any crisis such as this, there is huge amounts of unannounced diplomacy going on in the background that isn't publicised. Calling Biden weak is over simplifying it, you really have no idea how hard people are working in the back channels to get resolutions.
Biden appears to be weak because... it's an election year and he cannot be seen by a huge and influential Dem voting block as going against Israel. Bibi knows this.
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so do you think Bibi's position weakens if trump wins?
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Bibi knows that Trump is a useful idiot that he can manipulate.
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No, obviously not, that would be catastrophic
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Oh I’m not saying Biden is weak, I’m anticipating the retro view if it all goes horribly wrong. Biden is the best thing to happen to the US in decades. The talent in his administration is off the scale. And if you don’t like how maturity manages crisis, millennials, you’re gonna hate responsibility. Buckle up.
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Prodigal Son 12 Apr 24 06:48
(you know as night follows day that Israel will nuke them, dont you btw).
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a state can probably get away with nuking an invading army chucking nukes cross borders is probably not a viable long term survival strategy
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Wider ME war = massive dolla hikes 4 patz
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I have a horrible feeling that the Iranian army will turn out to be like the Iraqi army, a few very good disciplined units but generally conscripts who leg it at the first sign of trouble.
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that could be true Sails but I wouldn't want to underestimate them either.
How many Iranian soldiers have had their battle training in Syria, Yemen and Libya? Dunno but I don't want to find out either.
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Except for his stunningly inept national security adviser. A very intelligent lawyer with no grasp of international politics nor the dynamics or motivations of a mafia state.
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Israel needs to be brought down a peg or two/learn some hard lessons including how to get through a day without murdering people. I don't think Iran is the one to teach it.
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Why a "horrible" feeling? I have a very encouraging feeling that they will turn out like that. Certainly far fewer Iranian deaths would be in the offing if so.
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Threep, as in Iraq, they'll just slaughter them as they run away
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How many more Iraqis would have died if they'd stood and fought?
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Palestinians deserve justice. But an escalation including nukes is in no one’s favour.
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Probably fewer than were bombed whilst defenceless trying to get away. If you stand a fight there's a chance of being taken prisoner but if someone just bombs you while you're stuck in traffic jam there's a very high likelihood of just dying.
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I don't think Iran truly wants a wider war. The leadership may be an unpleasant lot (but which ME country's government ain't) but know full well Netanyahu is trying to bait them into war with the US. They're enraged at the Israeli strike in Syria, and will I'm sure try something - but will probably try to calibrate it so that the US won't step in (at least not in a major way). Would imagine that - just as Israel's action took place in Syria - striking Israel itself is not on, at least not by weapons that can be directly linked to Iran. Israel doesn't have embassies or diplomatic missions in any of the countries Iran could conceivably strike, and targeted assassinations of senior Israeli military or intelligence personnel in eg. the Gulf states would depend a great deal on the quality of intelligence they have. If I had to guess, increased activity by proxies (Houthis etc) is the most likely step.
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This is a fundamental misunderstanding of war. Attacking soldiers as they retreat to a more advantageous position is completely legitimate. If the Iraqi army wanted to surrender then they could have done so and would have been protected by the Geneva conventions.
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No the way to be taken prisoner is to surrender. If you stand and fight you will be attacked and likely killed. If you retreat you are likely to be attacked and killed.
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Does anyone understand why Israel hit the Iranian embassy in Syria? There is a suggestion of a high value target in there but it seems an insane risk to take to kill one guy unless they want to provoke Iran into retaliation.
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audible gasp and intake of breath
No, they wouldn’t do that. Would they?
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ThErE WErE teRrOriStS iN thERE.
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It makes no sense that Israel would want retaliation from Iran though. It might shore up US support I guess but again it is such a huge risk to take. Presumably Iran would calibrate a response initially but if there is an escalation, a big attack on Tel Aviv is not impossible and that would be catastrophic for Israel.
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Depends how prepared you think either country is to use the nuclear weapons that they are bith believed to have at their disposal. It’s the classic Cold War stand off being played out by different foes
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Which, FAOD, I don’t believe that either of them wants to do (because of the consequences of what that would mean in retaliation for both). But I have no doubt that Israel would love to provoke Iran into doing something that results in the US deploying troops to the region
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Do you have a bomb shelter, Donny? Might be time to get one if you don't.
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Just so people are aware - the Iraqi Army circa 2003 was in large part bought off and paid to surrender by bribing a bunch of key generals - they didn’t run away from cowardice - they were (a lot of them) ordered not to resist. That is why the US forces had such an easy ride to Baghdad. There was plenty of contemporaneous reporting about this - it’s just not mentioned very often now (and was not emphasized even then because it’s a bit inconvenient for the narrative of the ever victorious US army)
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It would be a mistake for Israel to nuke Iran. A huge huge huge mistake.
Far better strategy for them would be to selectively target the leadership and the Guard and create the opportunity for Iranian opposition to throw a coup
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Israel is clearly not going to nuke anyone unless the threat to Israel itself is existential. They have the same rules of nuclear engagement as everyone else.
Also, they’re not going to nuke anyone without US permission because Biden has the launch codes
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Not sure about Biden having the codes for the Israeli nukes. They developed their own with assistance from France and the Brits. It's all a big secret though so who really knows?
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heh @ the disliker
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Rof should release the stats on who is doing the most downdooting each week.
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Looks like it’s waded in.
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one of the things that has always struck me about the prospect of Iran v Israel war is how far apart the two countries
surely anything they throw over will get shot down? guess we now have hours to find out
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Somebody stop these c unts from WW3. Ff a s
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So Iran is violating Iraq and Jordan’s air spaces or those countries are in cahoots? Latter would be hard to believe re Jordan
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they are not in cahoots, the Jordanians have said they will shoot down iranian aircraft that invade their airspace
whether they actually can shoot these down is a different matter although they do have plenty american kit
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as for iraq, it’s probably less well tooled, but has never been noted for being big m88s with iran
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Jordan on the good side and got plenty of tools but probably not enough to stop all the missiles
At least we can land troops there
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Davos’ punditry on geopolitical matters is famous ofc, who remembers “yup, this looks pretty planned - see you at the front line” when the ukrainians accidentally bombed Poland,
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You ok Hun?
I never said that, as you well know
Funny how people love to speak for me. Always public school classplaining to me
I'll speak for myself, thank you.
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