Germany to decide on Merkel’s successor
Sir Woke XR Re… 26 Sep 21 07:17
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Curiously, they are choosing to do this by way of an election. How quaint!

Who would you vote for m99s? I’d be tempted to vote for the Green lady.

Baerbock was an early front runner but has faded (there was a some scandal about her book having been a little light-fingered with regard to source material and some undeclared income).

Still, only 40 and I wood.

But will likely be Scholz that nicks it in terms of largest party, traffic light coalition after weeks/months of wrangling.

heh @ jelly, Jack. I wonder whether mutti was carried that appeal in her time?

Looks like Laschet may get the nod (but with a coalition) to maintain continuity for a couple of years

Laschet will be very lucky indeed to be the representative of the party with the largest vote share.

Scholz can likely cut a deal with the Greens and the FDP. 

He doesn’t need the CDU/CSU.

CDU/CSU however even with FDP will definitely struggle to cut a deal with Greens and even more so with SPD. And they CAN’T cut a deal with AFD any more than Scholz can cut a deal with Die Linken (old East German communist party).

I don’t see a route to power for Laschet unless the election night throws a real curve ball.

“Among certain professional classes, there is a meritocratic exuberance that has led people to believe their success is completely self-made.”

heh - he’s obviously been reading too many of the rightwhingers’ contributions on rof

Heh, mayor of a large industrial Northern town, some harking back to 90s Third Way but slightly updated for post 2015 populism. Common sense and reasonably middle of the road.

Who does that remind you of in U.K. Labour politics?

(Hint: I’m not talking about Sir Keir).

wot is amazing about frau merkel is her enduring popularity - not that i am surprised based on her performance, she’s probably the most admirable politician (certainly in europe) of the last 20 years, more th at i am just surprised someone can be top for so long and not suffer a massive popularity hit; testament to her indisputable brilliance i suppose

She has outlasted a real rough patch over taking in refugees prior to 2016.

She also benefits from Germans (for understandable reasons) preferring their politicians to be quite boring and having an aversion to more character- and charisma-driven operators.

Scholz - like Schmidt much more than Schroeder or Brandt - is a hard nosed pragmatist/gradualist progressive.

Looking a grim night for Laschet and CDU/CSU. Their lowest vote share in the history of contested elections in the Bundesrepublik.

SPD to form traffic light coalition painfully slowly with Greens and FPD.

Unfortunately likely only in countries that have PR, not FPTP, Laz.

And although strategically sensible in the longer term, this last week turned out to be a poor week for Labour to spend debating internal power dynamics and who gets to choose leaders given the very obvious shitshow in government.

Will be interesting to see how that shows through in the polls, mind.

 

Good governance tends to trump idealism in German because (a) they have learnt lessons from history and (b) have an electoral system that doesnt hand total control to utter fvckwits.

As a result, they will continue to prosper and not much will change whoever is elected.