There are some things in life which just naturally follow on from others.
Summer follows spring.
Autumn precedes Winter.
A naff Bond film usually follows a good one.
Skin of the teeth promotion to the Premiership is followed by a whopping 4-0 win and topping the league for a few hours......sometimes.
Having worked within legal recruitment for a number of years you learn to recognise the cyclical nature of the industry. Market conditions replicate themselves every few years through boom and bust and it is not unusual for a recruiter to be able to predict how, where and when things are likely to pick up, albeit that the circumstances of the current economic climate are quite unique.
As September approaches the question arises over the number of NQs being offered opportunities at their training firm, and for those unable (or unwilling ) to remain this leads to whether there are sufficient other openings with other practices to satisfy those seeking a new role.
Whilst nowhere near as bad as last year the fact remains that most firms are unable to retain as many trainees as they would like to, as pressure to reduce overheads and lower volumes of work bites into the numbers of newly-qualifieds being retained. Whilst Magic Circle firms may point to significant volumes being kept on, with Linklaters for example retaining 87% of NQs, this is not a trend reflected the whole way through the market. Where NQs are offered roles these are largely into areas such as litigation with only a few qualifying into transactional fields, particularly at practices which may generally be considered second or third tier and lack the ability to support a fee-earner working at less than 75% capacity.
For those who have worked within the law (or legal recruitment) for any length of time there can be parallels drawn with similar instances in 2000 or the early 1990s, as recession and/or external market pressure forced firms to either dispense with NQs or offer them opportunities in the few disciplines which remained busy at the time.
The result? Well if you look at those qualifying following the burst of the dotcom bubble or in the immediate post 9/11 climate the lack of transactional work meant many NQs at these times moved into areas such as litigation, family, employment, etc. Fast forward 4 years and the demand for corporate or commercial property solicitors of circa 4yrs PQE led to demand far outstripping supply, with the consequence of salaries rising massively in these areas.
Ring any bells?
Despite fears of double-dip recessions and lack of growth in the property industry the market will eventually return, at which time firms will again be struggling to attract the talent necessary to service their clients. Consequently the firms who are currently retaining their trainees are the ones who are less likely to have to fight tooth and nail to get the numbers in to handle the increased flow of work. Similarly these are also going to be the firms who can still opt to recruit only who they need to and can be discerning in the market.
Admittedly these are also the practices who will also need to look after their staff to avoid them being tempted by other opportunities; but then that’s a different matter altogether.........